Alongside today's Q2 earnings report, Apple also provided its outlook for the current June quarter. The company expects revenue growth of 14 to 17 percent year-over-year – despite the global memory shortage. At the same time, the gross margin forecast indicates that the memory pressure is now having a noticeable impact on the balance sheet.
Apple's earnings calls traditionally focus not only on the recently concluded quarter but also on the outlook for the next. Apple provided precisely this forward guidance today – and it offers fascinating insights into how management assesses the coming months. After the strong record-breaking Q2 figures, Wall Street analysts were eagerly awaiting the question of whether Apple would maintain its growth trajectory into the June quarter. The answer: Yes – with a significant margin restriction.
Guidance overview
CFO Kevan Parekh has released the following key figures for the third fiscal quarter of 2026 (April to June):
- Revenue growth: 14 to 17 percent compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
- Gross margin: between 47.5 and 48.5 percent
- Operating expenses: between $18.8 and $19.1 billion
- Other income/expenses (OI&E): approximately $250 million
- Tax rate: approximately 17 percent
Apple explicitly points out that this forecast reflects Apple's "best view under limited supply availability" - a clear reference to the ongoing global memory and chip shortage. Furthermore, Apple clarifies that this is based on the assumption that current tariffs and political frameworks remain unchanged and that the global macroeconomic situation does not deteriorate.
What revenue growth means
With a growth range of 14 to 17 percent, Apple would still clearly be in double digits for the June quarter. In Q3 2025, Apple achieved revenue of around $94 billion – an increase of 14 to 17 percent would therefore land it in the range of roughly $107 to $110 billion. That would be an exceptional figure for a June quarter, which is not seasonally one of Apple's strongest.
The growth drivers are likely to be the iPhone 17 family, the most popular lineup in Apple's history, the continued high demand for Macs, and the services division. It's important to note that Apple explicitly calculated this guidance "under limited supply." Should the memory and chip shortage ease more quickly than expected, the figures could be even better.
Gross margin: The storage pressure becomes visible
More interesting than the pure revenue target is the margin outlook. In Q2, Apple reported a gross margin of 49.2 percent. For the June quarter, the projected range is 47.5 to 48.5 percent – about one percentage point lower. This is exactly what CFO Parekh had already announced in light of the increasing memory pressure.
The background: Apple is increasingly installing more DRAM and NAND memory per device in iPhones, iPads, and Macs – at the same time, memory prices are rising sharply worldwide because hyperscalers like Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Anthropic are clearing out the market for AI data centers. Apple has largely mitigated this in recent quarters through long-term supply contracts, but is visibly reaching its limits in certain areas.
A margin range of 47.5 to 48.5 percent is still strong by historical standards – it comfortably sits in the upper range of what Apple has considered "normal" over the past ten years. From an investor's perspective, the message is clear: the pressure is real, but under control.
Services: Growth remains strong
Apple remains optimistic about its services business. Parekh announced a similar growth rate for the June quarter as in the March quarter – albeit after adjusting for positive currency effects. In Q2, the services division reached a new all-time high with $30.98 billion in revenue and 16 percent growth. Should this momentum continue in the June quarter, services revenue would again reach around $30 billion or slightly more – thus once again accounting for roughly a quarter of total revenue.
This means that the App Store, Apple Music, iCloud, Apple TV, Apple Arcade, AppleCare, advertising and payment services will remain Apple's most important margin and growth engine in the new quarter – regardless of what is happening in the hardware supply chain.
iPad: Difficult basis for comparison
Apple offers a word of caution regarding iPad sales. The previous year's quarter benefited from the launch of the A16 model, making comparisons difficult. Parekh openly referred to it as a "difficult comparison." In short, if iPad sales stagnate or decline slightly in the June quarter, this isn't necessarily a warning sign, but rather an expected consequence of seasonality.
Two key assumptions under the outlook
Two points that are often overlooked in the headlines, but are crucial for understanding the guidance: Apple's forecast assumes, firstly, that current tariffs and trade conditions remain unchanged. Secondly, that the global macroeconomic situation does not deteriorate. Both assumptions sound trivial, but they are not – the geopolitical environment remains fragile, and a renewed outbreak of US-China tariffs could quickly alter the figures.
Apple has consistently used this wording for several quarters. It's the company's standard way of issuing a forecast without assuming responsibility for external shocks. Investors understand this and generally react calmly to it.
WWDC and the Beta Cycle fall in the June quarter
The June quarter traditionally delivers less hardware news than other quarters, but it provides important software impetus: From June 8th to 12th, 2026, WWDC will take place, where Apple will unveil iOS 27, macOS 27, watchOS 27, visionOS 27, iPadOS 27, and tvOS 27. The impact on Q3 revenue itself is limited, but enormous for market sentiment and expectations. If Apple's software roadmap for 2026/2027 is convincing, it should support the stock even independently of the actual figures.
Cook's last guidance as CEO
From a timing perspective, today's Q3 guidance is a special moment: it covers Cook's final months as Chief Operating Officer. Cook will also lead the corresponding earnings call with the Q3 results at the end of July – it will be his final appearance as acting CEO. John Ternus, who already spoke briefly on today's earnings call, will take over on September 1st. Thus, the guidance is also a legacy: Cook is handing his successor not only a record quarter, but also a forward forecast that clearly positions Apple in growth territory. The best products for you: Our Amazon storefront offers a wide selection of accessories, including those for HomeKit. (Image: Shutterstock / nicepix)
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