Several analysts believe that Apple is deliberately accepting lower profit margins to gain market share during the current memory chip crisis. The goal: to double its Mac user base from 260 million within a decade.
Apple is known for fiercely defending its profit margins. Industry-leading gross margins of 37 to 38 percent on hardware were long the gold standard – and any downward deviation was scrutinized on Wall Street. But several prominent analysts see signs that Apple is changing this strategy: Instead of passing on price increases to customers, as many PC manufacturers do, Apple is absorbing the increased costs of memory chips – and strategically exploiting the weakness of its competitors.
The background: The global shortage of memory chips, triggered by the enormous demand for AI servers, is driving up component costs for all device manufacturers. Most PC manufacturers are responding with price increases, which is further dampening demand. Apple, on the other hand, is keeping prices stable – most clearly seen with the MacBook Neo, which launched at a surprisingly low entry price despite rising component costs.
The thesis: Growth instead of profit margin
Apple analyst Horace Dediu and at least two other industry observers, including Seaport analyst Jay Goldberg, see this as a deliberate strategy. Apple is buying memory chips at premium prices, thereby exacerbating shortages for its competitors – a move Goldberg describes as part of a targeted competitive strategy.
The consequence: Apple's hardware gross margin could fall from the high 30 percent range to the low 30 percent range. For a company that has maintained consistently high margins for years, this would represent a remarkable change in strategy.
How Apple plans to compensate for the margin loss
The key lies in the services business. Every new Mac user is a potential subscriber to Apple Music, iCloud+, Apple TV, Apple Arcade, and other services. Services revenues have significantly higher margins than hardware – so Apple can offset the short-term margin loss on hardware with long-term service revenues.
Goldberg estimates that Apple will gain enough new users through increased market share to partially offset the decline in hardware margins. This strategy will work if the new customers remain within the Apple ecosystem – and current ecosystem stickiness suggests that this is exactly what will happen.
Doubling of the Mac user base is possible
Dediu believes that doubling the Mac user base within the next decade is a realistic goal. He estimates the current installed base at around 260 million users. 520 million Mac users would be a dramatic leap – and would transform Apple from a niche player with just under 10 percent market share in the PC market into a serious challenger.
The conditions are currently favorable: Mac sales grew by 9 percent in Q1 2026, while the overall market stagnated. The MacBook Neo is demonstrably attracting new buyers who haven't previously owned a Mac. And the competition is struggling with rising prices and declining sales volumes – a window of opportunity that won't last forever.
Whether Apple is truly prepared to permanently lower its margins, or whether this is a temporary tactic, will be revealed in the earnings report on April 30. (Image: Shutterstock / onapalmtree)
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