Apple will release its quarterly figures for January to March 2026 on April 30th. Wall Street has clear expectations – and the bar is set high.
After a historically strong first quarter with $143.8 billion in revenue, the question is: Can Apple maintain this level? Analysts are confident – but not without reservations.
What Apple itself promises
Apple has provided unusually precise guidance for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026: CFO Kevan Parekh announced revenue growth of 13 to 16 percent year-over-year. Based on the Q2 2025 figure of $95.4 billion, this translates to a range of approximately $107.8 to $110.7 billion. The expected gross margin is between 48 and 49 percent – near the upper end of Apple's historical range.
According to Benzinga, the consensus among Wall Street analysts is for revenue of around $109 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.93. TipRanks forecasts EPS of $1.94. Apple has exceeded earnings estimates for the past eight consecutive quarters – expectations are correspondingly high.
iPhone remains the foundation
The iPhone dominates Apple's numbers – and is expected to do so again this quarter. In the previous quarter, iPhone revenue climbed 23 percent to $85.3 billion, driven by the iPhone 17 family and a strong comeback in China (+38 percent year-over-year). For Q2, analysts anticipate a return to normal, not a decline. A Morgan Stanley survey found that 37 percent of global iPhone users plan to upgrade – a record figure that suggests continued momentum in the replacement cycle.
At the same time, Apple warned during its Q1 earnings call that supply bottlenecks for advanced SoC chips would have a greater impact in the March quarter. Tim Cook spoke of a supply and demand imbalance, the end of which was difficult to predict. This could easily push iPhone revenue below its theoretical maximum.
Services: The most reliable growth engine
The Services division is Apple's profit engine. In the first quarter, Apple generated $30 billion in revenue from this segment – a new all-time high. For Q2, Apple expects Services growth of a similar magnitude to that of the December quarter, which would correspond to approximately 14 percent. Analysts confirm this assessment, pointing to the growing Apple One subscription business, rising App Store revenue, and the launch of Formula 1 broadcasts on Apple TV in the US.
Morgan Stanley also sees significant long-term potential in a paid Apple Intelligence subscription – and speaks of possible billions in revenue once the platform is sufficiently mature. This isn't a factor for Q2 yet, but it shows where things are headed.
Mac: Initial impetus from the MacBook Neo
The Mac segment is the biggest uncertainty. In the previous quarter, Mac sales slumped by 7 percent to $8.39 billion – a difficult basis for comparison, because M4 MacBooks had gotten off to a strong start a year earlier. Now there's a new factor: the MacBook Neo, Apple's most affordable notebook ever, which was launched toward the end of the quarter.
Initial sales figures point to a record-breaking launch – Tim Cook spoke of the best launch week ever for first-time Mac users. Whether this will be enough to reverse the trend in Mac sales remains to be seen. Analysts are optimistic, but the Neo's lower pricing could dampen overall sales in the segment despite higher unit sales.
Tariffs and margins under pressure
One topic that concerns investors and analysts alike is Apple's tariff burden. In the past Christmas quarter, Apple paid $1.1 billion in tariffs – the company had already anticipated around $1.4 billion for the March quarter. Apple will disclose the actual amount on April 30. Added to this are increased memory prices, which are putting pressure on hardware margins.
A guidance-compliant gross margin of 48 to 49 percent would still represent an improvement compared to the previous year. The fact that Apple is operating at the upper end of its historical margin range despite these challenges demonstrates the structural strength of its business model.
Analyst sentiment
Wall Street remains decidedly constructive. According to Tickernerd, 29 out of 49 analysts rate AAPL stock as a buy, 16 as a hold, and only four as a sell. The median price target is $300 – roughly 16 percent above the current price. The highest target price comes from Wedbush analyst Dan Ives at $350. The most conservative outlook is from Loop Capital at $215.
The outlook for the coming months plays a major role in the assessment: WWDC 2026 on June 8th is expected to unveil a revamped Siri and new Apple intelligence features – catalysts that analysts are already factoring into their models. Added to this is the anticipated iPhone Fold in fall 2026, which, according to Morgan Stanley, could generate between 40 and 60 billion US dollars in revenue within 18 months of its launch.
Apple Q2 2026: What Wall Street expects
Expectations are high, but not unrealistic. Apple itself has issued guidance that signals strength – despite supply chain problems and tariffs. The consensus estimate of around $109 billion in revenue would be comfortably within its self-imposed target range. Crucially, the iPhone will perform well despite the bottlenecks, whether services maintain their growth trajectory above 14 percent, and what signals Apple sends for the current quarter. The conference call on April 30 at 11:00 PM CEST is likely to be more exciting than usual. (Image: Shutterstock / Garun .Prdt)
Disclaimer: No recommendation for investments
This article does not constitute financial or investment advice. The information contained herein is for journalistic and informational purposes only. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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