A second forecast arrives at the same figure: The iPhone 18 Pro could start at around $1,399 in the US. The reasoning lies not in the specifications, but in three components whose purchase prices are skyrocketing for Apple. The analyst behind this calculation has simultaneously withdrawn his recommendation for the stock.
Apple will unveil the new Pro generation in September, and the price has been the most contentious issue in the iPhone 18 Pro rumors for months. Until now, a single estimate circulated in June, suggesting a starting price of $1,399. Now, a second estimate from a different source arrives at virtually the same result – this time with a price range for both Pro models.
What the new invoice mentions in terms of figures
Analyst Jeff Pu of GF Securities, in a recent note, expects the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max to be priced $250 to $300 higher than their predecessors. This results in a starting price of $1,349 to $1,399 for the iPhone 18 Pro and $1,449 to $1,499 for the Pro Max.
For comparison, the current models: The iPhone 17 Pro starts at $1,099 in the US, the iPhone 17 Pro Max at $1,199. This price increase would therefore correspond to approximately 21 to 27 percent – in a product category where Apple has kept the entry-level price constant for years.
Three components drive the calculation
According to the note, the A20 Pro chip, manufactured using 2-nanometer technology, LPDDR5X RAM, and NAND flash memory are responsible for the increased costs. Apple's costs for these two memory types are said to have roughly tripled compared to the previous year. This is due to the global shortage caused by the expansion of AI data centers, a shortage that will not be alleviated in the short term even with the addition of new providers.
The raw material costs had already caused a stir in early July when an estimate calculated an increase in component costs for the Pro Max of almost $300. The fact that the now-stated sales markup is almost exactly in the same order of magnitude suggests that Apple would largely pass on the additional costs instead of absorbing them through margins. JP Morgan had also described this margin as limited.
What the surcharge would mean in Germany
In Germany, the iPhone 17 Pro with 256 GB currently costs €1,299, and the iPhone 17 Pro Max costs €1,449. Applying the aforementioned percentage range to these prices, the iPhone 18 Pro would theoretically cost between €1,590 and €1,650, and the Pro Max between €1,750 and €1,810.
These figures are explicitly a projection, not leaked prices. Apple doesn't mechanically set euro prices based on the dollar exchange rate, but rather takes into account value-added tax, exchange rate reserves, and the price level in the respective market. How significantly this calculation can deviate was demonstrated most recently in June, when Macs, iPads, HomePods, Apple TV, and Vision Pro became more expensive – iPhones were exempt at that time. Anyone still opting for the current model now may be buying the last Pro generation before a significant price increase.
Tim Cook hinted at what ultimately determines Euro prices at the earnings conference on Thursday, without answering the iPhone question: Apple decides on a product-by-product and market-by-market basis.
The tone changed within a few weeks
What's remarkable isn't so much the number itself, but the about-face behind it. In May, the same analyst had expected Apple to aggressively price the Pro models despite rising storage costs. Now he's citing uncertainty on the demand side and has downgraded Apple stock from "buy" to "hold".
Caution is advised when it comes to price rumors: Analyst estimates for sales prices are based on cost models, not on Apple's internal planning, and Apple has repeatedly held prices even when models suggested an increase. However, the fact that two independently generated calculations – the June report and this note – now arrive at the same price point makes the magnitude of the increase more difficult to dismiss.
The prize question will be decided in September
Not a single figure has been confirmed yet. Only the general framework is clear: In September, Apple will unveil the Pro models alongside the first foldable iPhone, which is expected to cost more than $2,000. Should the iPhone Ultra actually be priced in this range, the entire pricing structure of the iPhone lineup will shift upwards – and a Pro model at $1,399 would seem less like an outlier and more like the new midpoint. (Image: Shutterstock / Stockinq)
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