Apple will lead the global smartphone market in 2025. With a market share of 20 percent and a 10 percent increase over the previous year, Apple will achieve the highest share among the five largest smartphone manufacturers worldwide. This marks the first time the company has clearly established itself as the market leader.
The global smartphone market is projected to grow by 2 percent in 2025 compared to the previous year. This marks the second consecutive year of positive growth. According to the latest data from Counterpoint Research, this development is primarily driven by two factors.
Firstly, more and more consumers are turning to financing models to upgrade to higher-end devices. Secondly, the adoption of 5G smartphones continues to increase, particularly in emerging markets. In this environment, Apple is managing to grow significantly faster than the overall market.
Apple takes over market leadership
With a global market share of 20 percent, Apple will be at the top of the smartphone market in 2025. Sales growth of 10 percent compared to the previous year is the highest growth rate among leading manufacturers.
Samsung follows in second place with a market share of 19 percent. Samsung recorded moderate growth of 5 percent. Xiaomi holds third place with a share of 13 percent.
Growth drivers in emerging and mid-sized markets
According to Varun Mishra, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint, Apple's strong growth in 2025 will be driven primarily by its increasing presence in emerging and mid-cap markets. Demand there is rising significantly, supported by a broader product range.
Apple benefits from a stronger market position outside its traditional core markets and reaches new customer groups that were previously less represented.
Successful iPhone models throughout the year
The iPhone product line makes a significant contribution to this development. The iPhone 17 series gains considerable momentum after its market launch in the fourth quarter of 2025. Demand increases noticeably, reinforcing the strong year-end results.
At the same time, the iPhone 16 continues to sell exceptionally well. Demand remains particularly high and stable in Japan, India, and Southeast Asia. These regions are contributing significantly to Apple's sales volume in 2025.
Record quarter at the end of the year
According to a report by Counterpoint, Apple achieved a 25 percent share of global smartphone shipments in the fourth quarter of 2025. This is the highest quarterly share Apple has ever achieved.
This figure underlines the company's strong market position at the end of the year and the impact of the new iPhone generation combined with continued high demand for existing models.
Pandemic-induced upgrade cycle as an additional factor
Another important factor is the upgrade cycle, which began during the pandemic and will reach a tipping point in 2025. Many users are replacing their devices as the technical lifespan of older smartphones comes to an end.
Apple benefits particularly strongly from this, as a large proportion of users remain within its own ecosystem when switching devices. This effect further boosts sales figures.
Reduced impact from customs concerns
Concerns about potential US tariffs led many manufacturers to bring forward their deliveries to the first half of 2025. However, the actual impact on the market was less severe than initially expected.
In the second half of the year, the effects on sales figures remain limited. Overall, it appears that supply chains are reacting more stably than feared.
The outlook for 2026 is more cautious
Counterpoint's outlook for 2026 is considerably more subdued. The global smartphone market is expected to weaken. The main reasons are shortages of DRAM and NAND memory, as well as rising component costs.
Chip manufacturers are increasingly prioritizing AI data centers over smartphones. As a result, Counterpoint has revised its 2026 forecast downward by 3 percent.
Nevertheless, Apple and Samsung are still considered relatively resilient. Both companies have stronger supply chain capacities and can absorb bottlenecks better than many competitors.
Apple closes 2025 with record figures
Apple clearly established itself as the leader in the global smartphone market in 2025. A market share of 20 percent, growth of 10 percent, and a record-breaking quarter at the end of the year marked an exceptionally strong year. This success was driven by a successful product strategy, high demand in emerging markets, and a favorable upgrade cycle.
Even though the market is expected to become more challenging in 2026, Apple will remain a key player in the global smartphone market thanks to stable supply chains and sustained demand. (Image: Wongphoto / DepositPhotos.com)
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