Apple's first foldable iPhone could be unveiled in September alongside the other new models – but it won't go on sale until much later. A recent supply chain forecast suggests a familiar pattern from 2017 is at play.
When Apple launches a particularly technologically advanced device, there's sometimes a gap between the initial announcement and the actual sales launch. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, in his latest industry survey, suggests that this could be exactly what's in store for the iPhone Ultra. According to his findings, production volumes for the device in the second half of 2026 are expected to be around seven to eight million units – too few to be ready for regular sale by the September launch date. This assessment aligns with the existing picture surrounding the iPhone Ultra and highlights an aspect that has received little attention so far: the time lag between announcement and availability for purchase.
What the supply chain figures indicate
The core of the forecast lies in the production numbers. For the third quarter of 2026, Kuo anticipates only 0.5 to 1 million assembled iPhone Ultra units – roughly ten percent of the expected quantity for the entire second half of the year. This number is simply insufficient to support a regular market launch.
For comparison, Kuo cites the high-end models expected to be released concurrently. For the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, assembly volumes are projected to reach approximately 20 to 22 million units in the third quarter of 2026 – many times the iPhone Ultra volume and enough to achieve the necessary inventory for an official sales launch. The foldable model would thus be on the same stage, but wouldn't reach the same starting line.
The parallel to the iPhone X from 2017
Kuo uses the iPhone X as a blueprint. Its selling points at the time were the first edge-to-edge OLED display on an iPhone, as well as the introduction of the notch and Face ID with the TrueDepth camera. Because the device was difficult to manufacture, production volumes in the third quarter of 2017 were below one million units. This is precisely where Kuo draws the connection: Both devices rely on a novel user experience as their central selling point, while manufacturing hurdles slowed down early production. In the case of the iPhone Ultra, this includes the complex construction designed, for example, to make the display crease virtually invisible.
The sequence of events is revealing. Apple unveiled the iPhone X on September 12, 2017, alongside the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus – but pre-orders didn't begin until October 27, and sales didn't start until November 3. The less expensive models had been available for some time: pre-orders for them opened on September 15, and they went on sale on September 22. The sole reason for the iPhone X's delay was insufficient inventory for a September launch.
| Milestone | iPhone X (2017) | iPhone Ultra (expected) |
|---|---|---|
| Introduction | September 12 | September 2026 |
| Pre-order | October 27 | fourth quarter of 2026 |
| Sales launch | November 3 | fourth quarter of 2026 |
What this means for the schedule
Applying this pattern, a clear indication emerges for the iPhone Ultra. Given the limited production volumes in the third quarter of 2026, the foldable iPhone might not be available for pre-order and regular sale until the fourth quarter of 2026. The joint launch in September would thus remain a presentation event, with actual availability following several weeks later.
High demand and a possible surcharge on resale
Despite the high starting price, Kuo anticipates continued strong demand – at least until the end of 2026, even at a price of around $2,300 to $2,500. Discussions with mobile carriers, sales channels, and resellers have supported this assessment. The likely consequence: the iPhone Ultra could sell out immediately after pre-orders begin, delivery times are expected to quickly increase to four to six weeks or more, and remain at that level until December.
A limited initial supply, a distinctive design, and a novel user experience could lead to a short-term premium on the resale price. Kuo considers resale prices of 50 to 100 percent above the official price to be a possibility. For a device whose launch price is considered the most expensive iPhone ever, that would be a considerable sum.
When the real demand will emerge
According to Kuo, a reliable assessment of actual demand will only be possible between the end of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027. By then, the effects of the Christmas season and the initial launch hype should have subsided, while early production and supply bottlenecks should have improved significantly. Only when these temporary factors disappear will it become clear whether the demand is sustainable.
The difference in size compared to its historical predecessor remains remarkable: With the iPhone X, the situation eased by the end of November 2017, and shipments in the second half of the year ultimately reached around 30 million units. For the iPhone Ultra, significantly lower quantities are expected in the second half of 2026, with seven to eight million units – hampered by both the higher price and greater manufacturing complexity. This would make the foldable iPhone less of a mass-market product and more of a deliberately limited entry into a new device category. (Image: FrontPageTech x Asherdipps)
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