While rising memory chip prices are slowing the growth of OLED smartphones, Counterpoint Research predicts that Apple will become the most important growth driver in the OLED notebook segment. The reason: the upcoming MacBook Ultra with an OLED display.
The OLED market is facing a shift in 2026. The memory chip shortage, which is already shrinking the smartphone market, is now also impacting the OLED display industry. Counterpoint Research has significantly revised its growth forecasts for OLED smartphone panels downwards. At the same time, the market research firm expects strong growth in OLED notebooks – driven primarily by Apple.
The focus is on Apple's planned switch to OLED displays in the MacBook Ultra – the anticipated successor to the MacBook Pro with a fundamentally new design. The redesign, expected later this year, is set to bring the first MacBook with OLED technology – including touchscreen functionality. Counterpoint predicts that this move, along with the expansion of premium AI PCs, will drive 33 percent growth in the OLED notebook segment.
Smartphone OLED under pressure
The figures for the smartphone sector are significantly more subdued than expected just a few months ago. Counterpoint has lowered its forecast for foldable OLED panels to 34 percent growth – down from the original prediction of 46 percent. Flexible OLED panels for smartphones are now expected to stagnate instead of growing by 2 percent, and rigid OLED panels are projected to decline by 15 percent.
The main reason: Increased memory chip costs are making smartphones more expensive overall, which is dampening demand – especially in emerging markets, where price increases of 40 to 50 percent exceed purchasing power. This also affects display suppliers, who are selling fewer panels.
Why notebooks run differently
In the notebook segment, the higher prices of memory chips have less of an impact because OLED notebooks are already positioned in the premium segment. Buyers willing to spend over €2,000 on a MacBook Ultra are less sensitive to increases in component costs than mid-range smartphone buyers.
Apple benefits in two ways here: The company keeps its prices stable while the competition raises them – and at the same time launches the OLED MacBook Ultra, a product that offers a fundamentally improved display experience. Added to this is the planned OLED switchover for the iPad Air starting in 2027, which should further strengthen Apple's position in the OLED market.
The OLED market as a whole
Across all segments – smartphones, tablets, notebooks, monitors and automotive – Counterpoint expects near-flat growth in OLED shipments in 2026. Gains in monitors (up 45 percent), tablets (up 13 percent) and automotive displays will be largely offset by weakness in the smartphone segment.
For Apple, this means that the company will play a central role in three OLED segments in 2026 – in notebooks with the MacBook Ultra, in foldables with the iPhone Ultra, and in tablets with the iPad mini 8. (Image: Shutterstock / Shutterstock AI)
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