Forecasts and expectations for Apple's Q1 2026 results Apfelpatient

Apple will release its financial results for the first quarter of 2026 on January 29th. This quarter is traditionally considered the most important of the year, as it coincides with the holiday season and the full impact of the fall product launches. Apple itself has already announced that it expects a record quarter. Consequently, the results are attracting considerable attention from investors, analysts, and market observers.

The figures will be published in a press release on January 29. The key metrics will be finalized shortly before the subsequent conference call with analysts and investors. During the call, CEO Tim Cook and CFO Kevan Parekh will contextualize the results, explain the details, and provide an outlook for the coming quarters. As is customary, a Q&A session will follow, during which analysts will ask specific questions about growth drivers, risks, and future business development.

Why the first quarter is crucial for Apple

The first fiscal quarter is almost always Apple's strongest in terms of revenue. This is due to the holiday season and the continued sales of new products introduced in the fall. This combination regularly results in high revenues and strong profits.

At the end of the last fiscal year, Tim Cook stated that Apple expected record results for the upcoming first quarter. This statement sets the stage for expectations regarding the figures for the first quarter of 2026.

Looking back at the fourth quarter of 2025

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Apple generated revenue of $102.5 billion. This set a new record for the quarter, compared to $94.93 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. Earnings per share were $1.85.

Wall Street, however, had higher expectations. Analysts on average predicted revenue of $107.79 billion and earnings per share of $1.78. A breakdown by product category revealed the following:

iPhone revenue rose from $46.22 billion in the previous year to $49.02 billion. This fell short of Wall Street's expectations of around $50.2 billion.
iPad sales remained virtually unchanged at $6.952 billion, compared to $6.95 billion in the same quarter of the previous year.
The Mac segment performed better. Revenue increased from $7.74 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024 to $8.73 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The service sector remained a reliable source of growth. Revenue climbed from $24.9 billion to $28.75 billion.
Wearables, home and accessories remained stable overall, but saw a slight decrease from $9.04 billion to $9.01 billion.

At the end of the quarter, Apple launched numerous new products. These included the iPhone 17 family, the iPhone Air, the Apple Watch Series 11, the Apple Watch SE 3, the Apple Watch Ultra 3, and the AirPods Pro 3. These products had only a minor impact on the fourth quarter itself, but will have a significantly greater impact in the first quarter of 2026.

Benchmark: The first quarter of 2025

The figures from the first quarter of 2025 serve as an important comparison. At that time, Apple generated revenue of $124.3 billion, compared to $119.58 billion in the first quarter of 2024. Broken down by product category, the figures were as follows:

iPhone sales came in at $69.1 billion, slightly below the $69.7 billion from the same quarter last year.
iPad sales rose significantly from $7.02 billion to $8.088 billion.
Mac sales grew from $7.78 billion to $8.987 billion.
Wearables, home and accessories stagnated, declining from $11.95 billion to $11.747 billion.
The service sector continued its growth, increasing from $23.12 billion to $26.34 billion.

The service sector in particular once again proved to be a stable and reliable revenue driver.

The Christmas quarter of 2025 and its impact

The first quarter of 2026 is also expected to be the strongest quarter of the year in terms of revenue. In addition to the Christmas season, the product launches from autumn and October will have their full impact for the first time.

In October, Apple introduced, among other things, the M5 iPad Pro, the M5 Apple Vision Pro, and the 14-inch M5 MacBook Pro. While these products weren't available for the entire quarter, their early launches still had a noticeable impact, especially when combined with seasonal sales figures.

However, not all factors are positive. Apple still has to pay tariffs, even though there are some exemptions. In the fourth quarter, these costs amounted to $1.1 billion, and Apple paid a total of around $2 billion. For the first quarter of 2026, the company expects additional tariff payments of approximately $1.4 billion.

Furthermore, comparisons in the Mac sector are challenging. In the same quarter last year, MacBook Pro models with M4 Pro and M4 Max processors were introduced, making it difficult to compare sales figures.

Wall Street expectations for Apple's Q1 2026

Wall Street's expectations are based on consensus estimates from several analysts.

According to Yahoo Finance, the average revenue estimate from 30 analysts on January 14 was $138.35 billion. Forecasts ranged from a high of $142.74 billion to a low of $136.66 billion. This range suggests that many analysts are expecting results closer to the lower end of the range.

For earnings per share, 31 analysts predicted an average of $2.67. Estimates ranged from $2.51 to $2.80.

TipRanks also published its own consensus figures. They expect revenue of $137.47 billion, with a very wide range of $115.81 billion to $142.74 billion. Earnings per share are also estimated at an average of $2.67, with a range of $2.51 to $2.76.

Apple's Q1 2026 as a crucial indicator for the entire year

Apple is approaching the release of its first-quarter 2026 results with high expectations. Strong holiday sales, new products, and continued growth in the services sector point to a very solid quarter. At the same time, tariffs and difficult benchmarks, particularly in the Mac segment, are weighing on the overall results.

The figures released on January 29th and the statements from Tim Cook and Kevan Parekh will be crucial in determining how the market assesses Apple's next fiscal year. It's already clear that the first quarter of 2026 will play a pivotal role in the company's future direction. (Image: rokas91 / DepositPhotos.com)

Disclaimer: No recommendation for investments

This article does not constitute financial or investment advice. The information contained herein is for journalistic and informational purposes only. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.