The iPhone Fold could fundamentally change the foldable smartphone market. According to a recent report by Counterpoint Research, the introduction of a foldable iPhone in a book-like format will significantly accelerate the adoption of this format. The market researchers have, for the first time, quantified the potential impact.
If current rumors are true, Apple plans to unveil a foldable iPhone in a book-style design, rather than a clamshell format, towards the end of the year. This strategic decision would have a direct impact on market share, other manufacturers' product strategies, and the overall positioning of foldable devices in the premium segment.
Foldable devices in book format are already on the rise. Since 2020, Samsung has been the market leader in this category, with the exception of 2024, when Huawei recorded the most shipments of book-style foldables.
Despite technological advances, the market has remained relatively specialized. This could change once Apple introduces its own model. Counterpoint Research expects this to significantly shift the dynamics within the segment.
Technical orientation of the iPhone Fold
According to current information, the iPhone Fold will be equipped with two displays:
- 5.5-inch external display
- 7.8-inch internal display
The aspect ratio of the inner display is said to be based on Apple's largest iPads. This clearly signals that the company is focusing on productivity-oriented use cases and not on experimental form factors.
The book-format design allows for a larger, uninterrupted workspace when opened. This supports multitasking, media consumption, and productive applications more effectively than a classic clamshell design.
Counterpoint Research views this design decision as a deliberate strategic choice. The focus is on clearly defined use cases rather than on the mere innovative effect of an unusual format.
Forecast: 65 percent market share for book foldables by 2026
According to Counterpoint Research, foldable devices in book format are expected to reach a 65 percent share of total foldable device shipments in 2026. In 2025, this share was 52 percent.
Apple's anticipated entry is seen as a key driver of this development. While actual market results will still depend on factors such as pricing, launch timing, and product positioning, Apple's participation is expected to significantly influence the leadership dynamics in the segment and accelerate broader market acceptance.
Liz Lee, Associate Director at Counterpoint Research, describes the development as follows:
As foldable, book-format devices become increasingly prevalent, differentiation will depend more and more on software expertise and the readiness of the ecosystem. In this context, Apple's anticipated entry into the market will further accelerate industry-wide convergence toward foldable, book-format devices across OEM strategies and ecosystems.
This means that the future of the segment will be decided less by pure hardware innovations, but by the quality of the software and its integration into existing ecosystems.
Market leader and competitive situation
Based on data from Counterpoint Research, Samsung has been the market leader in foldable book-style devices since 2020. The exception was 2024, when Huawei achieved the highest number of shipments in this category.
The potential launch of the iPhone Fold would bring another major player into this segment. This is likely not only to shift market shares but also to trigger strategic adjustments by other manufacturers.
Impact of storage scarcity on market strategy
Another factor highlighted in the report concerns the current shortage of memory chips. According to Tarun Pathak, Research Director at Counterpoint Research, the shortage is increasingly focused on components for low- to mid-range smartphones.
This is leading to growing concerns about the prospects for the broader mass market. As a result, OEMs are placing more emphasis on higher-quality devices and prioritizing profitability over sales volume.
Foldable, book-format devices are particularly well-suited for this strategy. They typically feature premium specifications and higher storage configurations, thus supporting a higher average selling price (ASP) and aligning with value-oriented growth strategies.
As long as storage availability remains limited, it makes more economic sense for manufacturers to focus on high-margin foldables rather than volume-driven models in the lower price segment.
Further foldable considerations at Apple
Besides the book-style device, Apple's development labs are apparently also working on another foldable device. According to a Bloomberg report, a square, foldable smartphone is being developed there.
Whether this product will actually be released is currently unclear. Nevertheless, Apple is apparently betting that the first iPhone Fold will be successful enough to generate real demand in this category. In that case, customers could later request additional shapes and sizes, similar to what happened with classic slab-style iPhones.
iPhone Fold as a catalyst for the book format
The iPhone Fold represents more than just a new product. According to Counterpoint Research, Apple's entry into the market could lead to foldable, book-style devices reaching a market share of 65 percent by 2026.
The strategic focus on productive use, the larger display format and the positioning in the premium segment fit the current market situation, which is characterized by storage scarcity and a stronger focus on profitability.
Whether price, timing, and positioning will actually achieve the expected effect remains to be seen. However, one thing is clear: Apple's market entry is likely to significantly accelerate the development of the foldable book-format device segment. (Image: FrontPageTech x Asherdipps)
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