Four weeks ago, Apple stock experienced its worst day in over a year. Since then, the price has recovered 15 percent, reclaiming roughly $600 billion in market value. The reason is unusual: investors are rewarding Apple not for what the company does, but for what it fails to do.
The trigger for the crash was news that directly impacted customers in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. On June 25, Apple raised prices for Macs, iPads, Apple TV, HomePods, and the Vision Pro, citing soaring memory costs. The stock market reacted with its worst daily loss since April 2025; the stock closed at $275.15. Four weeks later, it's trading just below its all-time high again—and the analysts who were nervous at the time now consider the price increase the right decision.
Two setbacks in one month
June was a bad month for Apple on the stock market. The day after the WWDC keynote, the stock fell by around four percent. Part of this was due to the lukewarm reception of the AI announcements, and another part to the general market environment – at the same time, geopolitical tensions were weighing on large parts of the US market.
The real slump came just over two weeks later with the price hike. The fact that Apple was no longer absorbing the increased component costs through its own margin, but passing them on to customers, was initially a warning sign for investors: higher prices could dampen demand.
Why the money comes back
The shift has less to do with Apple than with the rest of the industry. Skepticism is growing in the markets as to whether the enormous sums that Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon are investing in expanding AI data centers will ever pay off. A reliable point in time when these investments will generate a return is not in sight.
It is precisely in this climate that Apple's decision to forgo the AI arms race becomes a compelling argument. The company isn't building its own large-scale AI data centers, but instead pays Google for access to its top-of-the-line models – Gemini forms the technological basis for Siri AI and the new Apple Intelligence features. What investors interpreted for months as a lag is now seen as a safeguard. Mark Bronzo, chief investment strategist at Rye Strategic Partners, describes Apple as the calm stock outside the storm in which the rest of the AI market is currently caught.
What the higher prices in Europe have to do with it
The second part of the explanation leads directly back to the price tag. Analysts now see the increases not as a demand risk, but as margin protection – and therefore as a positive. JP Morgan points out that previous price increases never significantly dampened demand for Apple products.
What's being celebrated on Wall Street as solid margin policy is being passed on to European buyers: The 16-inch MacBook Pro has cost €400 more since June 25th, now priced at €3,399 instead of €2,999; the 128GB Apple TV jumped from €189 to €299. The iPhone, Apple Watch, and AirPods were initially spared – however, Apple has already hinted at further price increases, and the next wave is likely to hit these products. Several sources anticipate a significant price hike for the iPhone 18 Pro.
The record has not yet been broken
Despite the euphoria, a closer look at the figures is worthwhile. The stock closed at $315.32 on Friday. The all-time high is $317.40, reached at the beginning of June – so it hasn't been reached yet, even if the difference is small.
The year's performance remains impressive nonetheless: With a 16 percent increase since January, Apple is the strongest performer among the "Magnificent Seven," ahead of Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla. The fact that the company with the most cautious AI strategy leads this group is the real irony of the first half of the year. Fittingly, market researchers predict Apple will achieve its highest market share ever by 2026.
The iPhone Ultra as the next lever
Expectations are increasingly focused on the foldable iPhone Ultra, expected in September. According to supply chain reports, Apple has instructed its suppliers to prepare for approximately ten million units this year – previously, the figure was seven to eight million. Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates, anticipates a sales price high enough to offset cost pressures on storage.
Whether this calculation will prove successful remains to be seen; a premium device in this price range has yet to prove itself in the market. For the current fiscal year, analysts on average expect a 17 percent increase in net profit.
The final accounting will take place on July 30th.
The current valuation rests on expectation, not evidence. It assumes that higher prices won't dampen demand and that foregoing its own AI data centers won't be a disadvantage in the long run. Both are bets, not certainties – and the stock's strength is currently primarily relative: Apple is doing well because others are doing worse.
Apple will deliver its first real test on July 30th with the third-quarter results. This will reveal how the gross margin has actually suffered due to storage costs – and whether the price hikes have already impacted sales in the first few weeks. (Image: Shutterstock / Atif Mahmud)
Disclaimer: No recommendation for investments
This article does not constitute financial or investment advice. The information contained herein is for journalistic and informational purposes only. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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