Apple Robotics: Analysts see next revenue stream Apfelpatient

Apple may be on the verge of its next major technological leap – and this time it's not about a new device for your pocket, but about autonomous machines. Analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate that Apple's entry into robotics could generate annual revenue of around $130 billion by 2040. That's roughly equivalent to today's App Store business and would significantly surpass revenue from the Mac and iPad segments.

The company is known for not being the first to enter new product categories, but rather for dominating them when technology, demand, and implementation align. This approach could also apply to robotics. While competitors like Tesla and Boston Dynamics are already experimenting with products, Apple is working behind the scenes on its own solution – with the goal of establishing a new platform. Robotics could become the next major product pillar alongside the iPhone, Mac, and services.

Robotics as the next platform after Apple Intelligence

According to Morgan Stanley, robotics is Apple's next platform after Apple Intelligence. The first step in this new direction is planned for 2027: a motorized table hub that can move and track users. The device is intended to provide support in everyday life – at home, in the office, anywhere simple tasks can be performed.

This is not a spectacular humanoid robot, but a discreet, functional device that blends seamlessly into its surroundings and the Apple ecosystem. This pragmatic approach aligns with Apple's strategy of entering new markets only when they are technically and socially ready.

Forecasts up to 2040

The figures cited by Morgan Stanley are impressive. By 2040, Apple could capture roughly 9 percent of the global robotics market – that would translate to approximately $133 billion in annual revenue. This would mean that robotics would not only surpass the App Store but also the entire Mac business, which currently generates around $29 billion annually. The Services division, with its $96 billion in revenue, would also be significantly outperformed.

In a more optimistic scenario, analysts even predict a market share of up to 22 percent, which would translate to almost $300 billion in annual revenue – similar to Apple's current iPhone sales. This would make robotics the company's second-largest source of income within the next 15 years.

Strategic advantages for Apple

Apple's biggest advantage in this new market lies in its complete control over its supply chains – from hardware and its own chips to software. The company already has experience in robotics, including through Project Titan (originally for autonomous vehicles) and the recycling robot Daisy. These projects have provided important expertise in areas such as sensor fusion, mobility, and mechanical engineering.

Furthermore, there are indications of an increasing focus: new patents, increased hiring in the robotics sector, and growing partnerships with suppliers like BYD point to long-term planning. Everything suggests that Apple is preparing for the move to mass production.

Apple Intelligence as a technological foundation

Apple Intelligence – the company's new AI platform – plays a central role in this. For robots to be used effectively, they need abilities such as perception, logical reasoning, and real-time learning. Apple intends to integrate precisely these elements into its products in the coming years.

Devices like AirPods could help capture visual and spatial data. Sensors and cameras provide the information from which robots can learn – locally and individually, to protect privacy. The idea is that each robot is "trained" by the user on-site, without central servers needing access to personal data.

Integration into existing product areas

In terms of hardware, the first robot is expected to be seen as an extension of the existing product line – comparable to the HomePod, but mobile and more intelligent. Its design and functionality are expected to clearly align with existing Apple products.

Services will play a crucial role in this. Possible options include subscription models with access to cloud-based processing, personalized task libraries, or exclusive apps from the app store specifically designed for robots. This would not only unlock new revenue streams but also strengthen long-term user loyalty to the ecosystem.

Robotics could also initially be used internally in manufacturing. This would give Apple the opportunity to test its systems under real-world conditions before making them available to other companies. This builds trust and signals quality.

Competition and market environment

Competition in the robotics market is fierce. Tesla, Boston Dynamics, and numerous Chinese startups are already working on humanoid robots or household helpers. Many of these companies prioritize speed and open beta models. Apple, on the other hand, remains true to its approach: no rapid launch, but rather thoughtful product design with a focus on reliability, security, and seamless integration.

The major challenge will be finding a balance between technical autonomy, mechanical dexterity, and user-friendliness. If this succeeds, Apple could make all the difference – and bring robotics from the laboratory phase into everyday life.

Outlook for the coming years

Over the next one to two years, the focus will clearly be on software. Updates to Apple Intelligence, new AI features, strategic partnerships, and the further development of hardware platforms will be crucial.

The first robotics prototype for end customers – a home hub with motion functionality – is expected in 2027. After that, the devices could gradually become more complex: from mobile assistants to modular systems to industrial or even humanoid robots.

Apple is likely to follow its usual approach: start small, learn, then scale. The end result will be an ecosystem of devices, software, and artificial intelligence – from the pocket to the home.

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Robotics as a new pillar in the Apple ecosystem

Robotics has the potential to become Apple's second-largest revenue stream by 2040 – right behind the iPhone. The planned tabletop hub is the first step in this direction. Crucially, Apple will succeed in developing robots that are intuitive, safe, and useful enough to be accepted in everyday life.

If this plan succeeds, Apple's next big innovation could no longer take place on a display, but move around the room – silently, adaptively, and connected. And thus become part of an ecosystem that has long since expanded far beyond phones and laptops. The best products for you: Our Amazon storefront offers a wide selection of accessories, including those for HomeKit. (Image: Shutterstock / Summit Art Creations)

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