The notebook market is heading for a challenging year. Several analysts predict significantly lower sales figures, rising costs, and persistent supply bottlenecks for key components in 2026. Memory, in particular, is proving to be a drag on the entire industry. However, this environment demonstrates that Apple is structurally better positioned than many competitors and is likely to be able to absorb the impact more effectively.
While the economic situation recovers only slowly and consumers remain hesitant about major purchases, notebook manufacturers are facing pressure from several sides. Higher memory prices are restricting margins, making pricing more difficult, and forcing many brands to make more cautious decisions regarding product planning and inventory management. Two recent reports from TrendForce and IDC provide concrete figures and show why Apple occupies a special position in this strained market.
Declining notebook sales according to TrendForce
Market research firm TrendForce has revised its forecast for the global notebook market in 2026 downwards. It now expects around 173 million units to be shipped, representing a decline of 5.4 percent compared to 2025.
TrendForce cites the sluggish economic recovery and continued subdued consumer spending as the main reasons. However, rising storage prices are having a particularly strong impact. These prices are limiting manufacturers' profit margins and reducing their pricing flexibility. As a result, many brands are pursuing a significantly more conservative approach. This is reflected in their inventory management, advertising campaigns, and the features of new models.
TrendForce also points out that the situation could worsen. If storage shortages do not improve, the decline in notebook shipments could reach as high as 10.1 percent in 2026.
Why Apple is less affected
Despite this tense situation, TrendForce sees Apple in a comparatively comfortable position. The report highlights that Apple's integrated supply chain and strong pricing power give the company more leeway than many competitors.
Apple also benefits from high and stable procurement volumes and product launches that can be planned well in advance. This allows for more precise demand forecasting, which in turn facilitates preferential partnerships with memory suppliers. These factors help to better control rising costs and mitigate supply bottlenecks.
TrendForce also expects Apple to launch a supposedly low-cost MacBook in spring 2026. Although the timing is unfavorable from a market perspective, this model is expected to benefit from ongoing efficiency improvements in the supply chain and economies of scale. Competitive pricing could help attract buyers, increase market penetration, and ensure stable delivery performance.
Developments in display technologies
Besides memory components, displays are also coming under pressure. TrendForce predicts that LCD panel shipments will decline by 7.9 percent in 2026 compared to the previous year. While OLED displays are expected to continue growing, the pace will be significantly slower than before. This development is also influencing the cost structure and product strategies of many notebook manufacturers.
IDC warns of ongoing memory chip shortage
Market research firm IDC also sees significant risks for 2026. In a separate report, IDC warns that PC shipments could decline by up to 9 percent due to an unprecedented shortage of memory chips. According to their assessment, this shortage could extend well into 2027.
IDC outlines several scenarios. In a moderate negative scenario, the PC market could shrink by 4.9 percent. In a more pessimistic scenario, a decline of 8.9 percent is even possible. The actual impact will depend primarily on how long the current supply bottlenecks persist until 2026.
At the same time, IDC anticipates rising average PC prices. In the moderate scenario, sales prices could increase by 4 to 6 percent, and in the pessimistic scenario, by as much as 6 to 8 percent.
IDC notes that the memory shortage was already factored into previous forecasts. However, since the publication, the situation has worsened, primarily due to the rapidly increasing demand from AI data centers, which are tying up additional memory chips.
Impact on the smartphone market
According to IDC, storage problems are not limited to the PC market. The smartphone sector is also likely to be affected in 2026, particularly Android manufacturers. The long-standing industry trend of premium features becoming increasingly available in cheaper devices could be reversed.
The storage component accounts for a significant portion of a smartphone's material costs. For mid-range devices, it represents approximately 15 to 20 percent of the total bill of materials (BOM), while for high-end flagship phones, it's around 10 to 15 percent. Rising storage prices will likely force manufacturers to significantly increase sales prices, reduce technical specifications, or combine both measures.
In the premium segment, Apple and Samsung are considered to be structurally better positioned. Thanks to high cash reserves and long-term supply contracts, they can secure memory deliveries 12 to 24 months in advance. Nevertheless, IDC expects limitations here as well. New flagship models in 2026 are not expected to receive RAM upgrades and will remain at 12 GB for Pro models, instead of increasing to 16 GB. Furthermore, it is unlikely that these models will experience the same price drop after launch as in previous years.
Apple benefits from structural advantages in a weak market environment
Reports from TrendForce and IDC paint a clear picture for 2026. The notebook and PC market is facing a significant downturn, driven by rising memory prices, scarce resources, and weak demand. Many manufacturers will have to adjust their strategies and expect declining unit sales. Apple stands out in this environment. An integrated supply chain, long-term supply contracts, and a high degree of planning certainty ensure that the company can better manage the impact of memory shortages than most of its competitors. (Image: Shutterstock / 9dream studio)
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