The Chinese smartphone market is shrinking for the fifth consecutive quarter, yet Apple is still experiencing strong growth. However, the reason for this success is precisely the point that could become a problem in the second half of the year.
Market researchers at IDC have released their figures for the second quarter of 2026, revealing a 24.4 percent increase in Apple shipments in China compared to the previous year – the strongest growth among all major manufacturers. Market share climbed from 13.9 to 18.1 percent, meaning that almost one in five smartphones shipped in China was an iPhone. Apple's return to second place in the Chinese market was already anticipated – the quarterly results now confirm the magnitude of this achievement.
Two winners in a shrinking market
The overall market declined by 4.3 percent, with approximately 66 million devices shipped in the quarter. This marks the fifth consecutive quarter of year-on-year decline. Huawei remains the market leader with 22.6 percent and, along with Apple, is the only major manufacturer to have seen any growth. All other manufacturers experienced losses – one vendor even suffered a 60.8 percent drop.
IDC cites rising storage and component costs, expiring government purchase subsidies, and weaker consumer demand, particularly evident in the 618 Shopping Festival, the biggest sales event of the Chinese summer, as the reasons.
Stable prices as a crucial lever
Huawei and Apple kept their prices stable while the rest of the Android market increased its prices – that's how IDC describes the core of the shift. Both companies accompanied this with targeted promotions. Huawei also broadened its product range to cover more market segments.
In Apple's case, a second factor comes into play, and this is the truly interesting one: Because the company signaled early on that its products for the second half of the year would be more expensive, buyers brought forward their decisions and opted for the iPhone 17 series earlier than they otherwise would have. The announcement of future price increases thus acted as a selling point for the present.
Advance purchases will be missing later
That's precisely the downside. Demand that was brought forward to the second quarter is no longer available in the third and fourth. IDC expects the full impact of the cost wave to hit soon anyway: So far, manufacturers have been living off cheaply purchased component inventories, and once these are depleted, the full force of the pressure will hit in the second half of the year. Based on current trends, the Chinese market could then be around 20 percent below the previous year's level.
IDC also offers a counterargument: those who postpone buying today will buy eventually anyway. The pent-up demand could be released as soon as conditions improve.
The same wave of costs is also hitting Europe
Memory prices, which are forcing Android manufacturers in China to raise prices, are not a regional phenomenon. In Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, Apple has already increased the prices of Macs, iPads, and the Vision Pro, and Tim Cook has openly hinted at further adjustments. What appears in the IDC figures as a competitive advantage—Apple kept prices stable while others didn't - is therefore more a question of timing than immunity.
For buyers in this country, this has a simple consequence: The cost pressure that is currently shrinking the Chinese market is the same pressure that is driving price tags up in Europe.
The moment of truth will come on July 30th.
The quarter measured by IDC is exactly the one Apple will report on in two weeks: the company's third fiscal quarter covers April through June. Therefore, the revenue figures for Greater China will be just as interesting on July 30 as the forecast for the current quarter. This is the point at which it will become clear whether Apple has factored in the pull-forward effect. (Image: Shutterstock / Anna Hoychuk)
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